20 Wine Predictions For 2012
So what does the future hold for the world of wine? That's a good question, and one that no person, in fact, can answer.
But, that doesn't stop us humans from continuing to joust at windmills. So, being a member of the human race (based on my last check-up), and remembering my good friend Ed Lazarus' sage advice — "God hates a coward" — here are the Underground Wineletter's prognostications for 2012:
1. The Chinese miracle will continue to roll on, driving up prices for selected wines that are in very limited supply. But, by the end of the year, this trend of ever-increasing prices for selected wines will be waning.
2. The Chinese market for wines will show continued signs of expanding, as more different types of wines become familiar.
3. The worldwide wine glut will continue, with falling prices for many very high priced wines. This will be driven by California wines and some classified growth Bordeaux in the triple-dollar digits.
4. World economic conditions and large production will continue to result in large numbers of inexpensive wines imported from South America and Spain, with plenty of support from France and Italy. Other countries will need to lower prices to compete in the lower price segment of the market.
5. Because of the large number of lower-priced wines (wines priced at $10 and under), wine consumers will be more adventuresome.
6. The trend toward "Affordable Drinkable Wine" (ADW) will continue. Imported rosés — especially from France and, in particular, Provence; along with Italy and Spain — will continue to gain favor.
7. This rosé trend will accelerate in California offerings, as many producers will find it economically viable to turn more and more red grapes into a "cash crop." Prices will have to compete with the large supply of imports that are generally priced in a range of $10-$30.
8. The trend to ADW will continue to spread in California and include more chardonnays and cabernets, as well as sauvignon blancs, syrahs, merlots, and zinfandels. There will be a lot of wine in the $10-$15 range with even more in the $10-$20 range.
9. New Zealand wines — particularly sauvignon blancs — will gain appeal as a result of their compatibility with lighter foods and competitive pricing.
10. The trends of less oak and less alcohol will continue. This will be particularly noticeable in California wines as time goes on.
11. It is probably too early to predict an end to the "big wine" syndrome, but expect it to come under more criticism as the year progresses. This will be driven by the trend to ADW and more experienced wine drinkers' changing taste preferences.
12. Driven by the flood of "big wines" in recent years and questions about "what is wine," more and more consumers ask for more transparency in terms of ingredients in wine. Wineries such as Ridge Vineyards will list ingredients and others will follow.
13. Wine ingredient labeling will gradually move forward, but will not become a real issue until a "scandal" emerges.
14. The wine fraud issue will surface again driven by the disclosure of evidence from the ongoing lawsuits alleging wine fraud. The Underground was the first publication to speak to this subject and we will have more to say later.
15. While there will probably be proof of the existence of wine fraud, proving it may be another matter.
16. Wine writers will gradually join the trend toward transparency, but this is likely to take time and will be driven by unexpected news.
17. Fake wines and wine fraud will continue to be a fact of life in China and follow the long line of other products being knocked off there. Unscrupulous types will funnel these counterfeits back to the U.S. to be sold to gullible consumers.
18. Wine "Investment Trusts" will continue to be created. This will inevitably lead to a sharp correction, as too much wine is accumulated, but this is unlikely until there are headline news articles on a regular basis about how investing in wine is a "no lose" proposition. This is not likely for several years.
19. An oversupply of "big numbers" New World wines will result in a flattening of prices. The auction market for "flippers" will soften.
20. More and more people here will turn to wine as the beverage of choice with food. This will be driven by lifestyle changes and increased awareness.
— John Tilson, The Underground Wineletter
Related:
2010 Sancerres and Some Food Suggestions
Along the Burgundy Trail, Vintage 2010