These Popular Grocery Store Foods Might Cost More In 2025

While many people are already struggling with high grocery prices, the looming tariffs proposed by the incoming presidential administration have many worried that costs may be even worse next year. While nothing is set in stone yet, the countries most likely to be hit with large tariffs are China, Mexico, and Canada. That means that all goods sent from those nations into the United States would likely see their prices rise, perhaps significantly, meaning that American consumers will need to spend more for many everyday items.

You may be wondering which groceries you should be the most concerned about, whether you want to stock up in advance of potential price hikes, or just mentally prepare yourself for the impending sticker shock. According to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration, the United States imports around 15% of its food from other countries, with Mexico and Canada accounting for a large percentage of that total, and China contributing a significant amount of agricultural products as well. We'll have to wait and see what actually happens next year, but here are some major grocery store items you may want to prepare to spend more on in 2025.

As Americans eat more and more seafood each year, the country's reliance on imports to meet rising consumer demand has grown. Almost 80%of all seafood that Americans eat is imported from other countries, most notably Canada. The United States' northern neighbor was the largest shipper of seafood, sending over three billion dollars worth of fish and other edible sea creatures across the border in 2023, according to Trading Economics, which takes data from the United Nations COMTRADE database. Mexico and China provide some seafood to Americans as well, and although to a lesser degree than Canada, the combined value still numbers in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Tariffs on seafood imported from these countries would affect so much of the nation's seafood supply, it's hard to imagine that domestic production would be able to make up the deficit. Crustacean lovers should be doubly concerned, as that's the top category of seafood sourced in from all three countries. If you eat a lot of crab, lobster, and shrimp, be prepared to pay a lot more for these delicious morsels next year.

Not only do we import billions of dollars worth of beef from our neighbors to the north and south, these countries also provide us with significant numbers of live cattle. The consequences on tariffs placed on both Mexico and Canada, then, could affect not only the price of imported beef, but the price of domestic beef as well, for companies in the United States that are even partially reliant on imported cattle from these countries.

Trends in 2024 may soften the blow a bit, as beef imports from Mexico have fallen slightly, and imports from other countries such as Australia and Brazil have skyrocketed. If those countries aren't hit with tariffs, their contributions may be enough to keep reasonably priced beef on American store shelves. Otherwise, it may be time to think about cutting back on red meat, or even finally starting that plant-based or vegan diet you've been curious about.

Mexican beer is incredibly popular in the United States, dwarfing all other countries' contributions of the beverage. According to the Beer Institute, as of October 2024, Mexican beer imports had risen nearly eight percent over the previous year, with over 900 million gallons of brews making their way across the border. For perspective, the next highest exporter is the Netherlands, supplying just 10% as much. Domestic production within the United States is no slouch — about 6 billion gallons of beer were made within the borders in 2023, so even without the massive influx of Mexican beer, there would still have been plenty to go around. But should tariffs hit those imports, popular brands like Modelo and Corona could see their prices spike. Modelo Especial, as it happens, is also the most popular beer in the U.S.

It's not just Mexican beer that could be hit by these tariffs. Canada supplies the United States with lots of malted barley, which domestic breweries use to make their beer. Other items that are imported from Canada and Mexico such as aluminum for cans, machinery used to make and bottle beer, and bottle caps could also see their prices affected, which would mean domestic beer brewers would likely have to raise their prices, too, to meet rising production costs. Even if you solely drink local beer, these tariffs could affect how much you have to spend to get your suds.

While beer is by far the most imported beverage from Mexico, spirits and liqueurs are the second largest import category that comes from the United States' southern neighbor. Tequila, and to a lesser extent mezcal, two Mexican spirits made from the agave plant, have been steadily growing their fan base in the U.S. for a long time. As the Distilled Spirits Council reports, from 2003 to 2023, the volume of these spirits sold in the United States increased by a whopping 294%. If tariffs lead to a spike in the prices of these beverages, agave spirit fans will be out of luck — both tequila and mezcal can only be made in Mexico, as they are geographically protected products. There are a handful of states within the U.S. that grow and distill agave, but not nearly enough to meet demand. Agave plants take years to reach maturity, over a decade for some species, and American states don't have a long-established industry like Mexico has.

From Canada, spirits and liqueurs rank at the top when it comes to exported beverages, led by popular Canadian whisky brands such as Crown Royal. These products could also see their prices rocket skyward. The other issue with tariffs on spirit imports is that retaliatory tariffs tend to hurt domestic spirit producers, as many American distillers rely heavily on selling to foreign markets. It took the United States spirits industry several years to recover from the Trump tariffs enacted in 2018.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Americans' appetite for avocados has grown so much in recent decades that about 90% of the United States' supply now comes from imports. Of that amount, the vast majority — almost 90%, in 2021 —comes from Mexico. Most domestic avocados are grown in California, where land is expensive and water is scarce, creating an environment that isn't suited to produce the amount of avocados the rest of the country demands.

While this popular bumpy-skinned food is technically fruit, the USDA ranked fresh avocados as the 14th most expensive vegetable on the market in 2022. With tariffs on Mexican imports, expect them to rise even further up the ranks in 2025. If you simply can't live without guacamole, the good news is that avocados can be frozen — you can just throw them in the freezer whole, as the skin acts as a protective coating. The bad news is that the texture won't be quite the same, and they shouldn't be in the freezer for longer than a month. After thawing, they should be peeled and used right away for best results.

After beverages and avocados, tomatoes are the third largest grocery item imported to the United States from Mexico. In fact, 2023 was a banner year for the product, with almost $3 billion worth of the savory fruit making its way north across the border. A report published in 2023 by Texas A&M's Center for North American Studies showed that the supply chain used to bring these tomatoes into the U.S. was responsible for almost 50,000 domestic jobs, and brought over $7 million into the American economy.

Any disruption to this system brought on by tariffs could not only cause the price of tomatoes to balloon, but could affect all of the people employed in the various aspects of the industry. In addition, companies that use tomatoes from Mexico to make their products — think things like ketchup, pasta sauce, and salsa — will likely have to increase their prices as well. If you live for tomatoes and have the outdoor space, now might be the time to think about planting your own vines and learning how to can them so you can enjoy tomatoes all year. With the right tools, you can even try canning your homegrown tomatoes.

Both Mexico and Canada contribute significant numbers of cucumbers to the United States, which relies on these supplies to meet consumer demand year-round. Almost every cucumber grown in both countries is destined for the U.S. Over the last 50 years, imported cucumbers have taken over the market share and, as of 2020, account for nearly 90% of all cucumbers sold in the U.S., generally taking over from winter to spring, when most of the U.S. climate isn't suitable for growing them.

A disruption in the imported cucumber system could cause scarcity through most of the year, when domestic supply is extremely limited. Rising cucumber prices will also affect the domestic pickle industry, which relies on the constant supply throughout the year to keep their businesses running. If you're the type of person who always asks for extra pickles on your sandwiches and burgers, you might want to stock up on your favorite brands, or get started with a new hobby — don't forget the MSG in your homemade pickles.

While Mexico is the United States' main supplier of fruits and vegetables, Canada takes the reins when it comes to baked goods that make their way across the border. Prepared loaves of bread, pastries cakes, and both sweet and savory biscuits make up the bulk of bakery aisle items that come from the north. The U.S. is responsible for taking in around 95% of all of Canada's exported baked goods in all of these categories and more — even a significant amount of communion wafers used in Christian churches come from the country.

In 2023, Canadian baked goods coming into the U.S. totaled $5 billion in value. Adding in other items like cereals and pastas swells that figure up to over $6 billion. Mexico isn't too far out of the game, sending the United States nearly $3 billion in baked goods in 2023. Keep an eye on the price of bread and pastries in 2025, and if you missed the homemade bread trend a few years back, now might be the time to start. Make sure you check out these helpful baking tips before you break out the flour.

Canada has been the largest supplier of cooking oil to the United States, particularly in recent years, with Canadian imports totaling almost $6 billion dollars in 2023. Canola oil is the main type that comes across the northern border to be used for food. It should be noted that the United States does import a staggering amount of other oils and animal fats from Mexico and China, but these are mostly used to produce biomass-based fuel, not for cooking.

Soybean oil and sunflower seed oil, along with other vegetable oils, are also shipped in from Canada, although in much smaller amounts than canola oil. Thankfully, there are plenty of other cooking oils on shelves, so if these particular oils surge in price, shoppers should have other options that hopefully won't be affected by tariffs. If canola oil is your go-to in the kitchen, stocking up is a good option, as even an unopened bottle can last for two years after the manufacturing date, and an open container can stay good for up to a year, especially if kept in a cool, dark place.

Both Canada and Mexico export tons of chocolate and cocoa products to countries around the world. In 2023, Canada sent the U.S. over two billion dollars worth of chocolate, including cocoa powder and whole beans, while Mexico provided over $600 million of its own, making them the top two chocolatiers serving the United States. In addition, the U.S. imports billions of dollars worth of sugar and confectionary items (otherwise known as candy) from Canada, Mexico, and China.

Part of the reason so much chocolate and candy comes from abroad is due to a tariff already in place in the United States. A trade policy limits the amount of raw cane sugar that can enter the United States from other countries before being subjected to a massive tariff, which makes the price of the commodity higher in the U.S. than it is elsewhere. This makes domestic production of chocolates and candies very expensive, and many companies decide to relocate across one border or another to save on sugar costs. Tariffs on imported chocolates and candies would exacerbate this issue further, possibly causing the prices of everything sweet to rise, whether it's produced in the U.S. or elsewhere.

The amount of fruit the United States imports from Mexico has been steadily rising for the last twenty-plus years, according to USDA data. We take in a small amount of fruit from Canada and China as well, although mostly in the form of dried, frozen, or prepared fruit. For fresh fruit, though, no country can hold a candle to what Mexico provides, and they send over a lot of frozen fruit, too. Imports into the U.S. from Mexico reached an all-time high of nearly $10 billion in 2023. This number does include avocados, which have already been mentioned — but aside from those, Mexico is a major supplier of berries, as well as tropical fruits like pineapple, mango, and melons. Lots of grapes and citrus fruits also come into the U.S. from Mexican growers.

The advantage of importing fresh fruit from Mexico is that the climate is more forgiving for these kinds of crops, allowing them to be grown at more times throughout the year than in most of the United States. Mexican-imported fruits are the main reason Americans can enjoy a variety of fresh fruit even when it's out of season in their local area. If tariffs jeopardize these imports, you may have trouble finding these fruits year-round, and if you do, they could be prohibitively expensive.

China is the world's leading exporter of garlic, whether fresh or preserved. Of all of the garlic that's shipped into the United States from around the world, over the last four years, China is responsible for over 80% of dried garlic products, and nearly half of all fresh and chilled garlic products. Think about everything that includes garlic of some form as an ingredient, and you'll quickly understand why having a large, steady supply is necessary — it's in just about every savory recipe, prepared snack food, and seasoning blend, while also being a staple ingredient in nearly every cuisine.

The United States does produce its own garlic, most notably in California. However, as with other California crops like avocados, the state's expensive land and water scarcity make it challenging to operate. Garlic is particularly difficult, as it grows at quite a slow rate and only offers one harvest a year. After harvest, it needs to be cured, which is also time-consuming. California growers still manage to fill grocery stores with hundreds of millions of pounds of garlic every year, but considering the average American eats 2½ pounds of garlic a year, domestic production falls short. Should Chinese garlic get hit by high tariffs, the price of nearly every savory food could go up, thanks to the ubiquity of this ingredient. Thankfully, garlic can be easily pickled or frozen, so you can always have a supply on hand.

Canadians exported over 10 million gallons of maple syrup in 2023, and the United States is the country's biggest customer when it comes to this tasty tree sap. Although many northeastern states produce their own, most notably Vermont, Canada's production is much larger than all of them combined. In 2023, for example, the U.S. produced just over 4 million gallons domestically, but imported over 40 million kilograms, or roughly over 7 million gallons, from its neighbor to the north, according to data from the USDA and the Government of Canada.

Maple syrup is already on the expensive side, thanks to its intricate and lengthy harvesting and production process, and the fact that it can only be produced in areas of the world with just the right climate and vegetation. There was a massive drop in maple syrup production in 2023 due to weather, which affected supplies and adversely affected both Canadian and American producers. With the addition of tariffs, there could be more difficult times ahead for the Canadian maple industry, and American syrup lovers may have to temporarily find a different flavor to pour over their pancakes in 2025.